L LC

Schulenberg and Associates, LLC:   Thermodynamic  Stock, ETF, and Mutual Fund Timing Signals and Portfolios

Schulenberg and Associates, LLC (since 1981): Originators of the Thermodynamic Approach to Stock Market Timing and the Stock Strategist™ Newsletter

Schulenberg and Associates, LLC is a company that specializes in innovative software products and solutions, and with a special emphasis on the design of numerical algorithms. Our experience with stock market timing and equity modeling began in 1987 when we added neural network capabilities to our EDES™ (Empirical Data Expert System) program. EDES/Model continues to be our primary tool for generation of our dozens of small, cascaded artificial neural networks that are used for stock market signal generation. Development of our Stock Strategist ™ software began in 2002, and we started publishing our daily Newsletter and market timing reports in October 2004.

Our S&P 500 Daily Prediction signal (SPYPRED5) is the culmination of 17 years of developmental work. As of January 2019, it is being tracked as the IRA-friendly strategy "IRA Hyperbolic SPY" on the Collective2 website. If you subscribe to this Strategy on Collective2, you can trade these signals yourself, or you can set up an autotrading capability that will link to your current brokerage account, in which case the trades will be made for you automatically. This signal is also used to drive a highly-leveraged S&P strategy named "3x Hyperbolic SPY". This strategy uses the 3x ETFs UPRO and SPXU. Graphs of both of these strategies are shown below.

Similarly, our other three Daily Prediction signals are currently being tracked on Collective2 using 3x leveraged ETFs, and the SUPER15 is a pure stock portfolio that will hold up to a maximum of 15 stocks from reliable companies (with track records since 2002 or earlier).

-- Nasdaq 100 Daily Prediction signal (QQQPRED2) drive the "3x Hyperbolic QQQ" strategy (see below). Uses TQQQ and SQQQ.
-- Dow 30 Daily Prediction signal (DIAPRED2) drives the "3x Hyperbolic DIA" strategy (see below). Uses UDOW and SDOW.
-- Russell 2000 Daily Prediction signal (IWMPRED2) drives the "3x Hyperbolic IWM" strategy (see below). Uses TNA and TZA.
-- SUPER15: a 15-Stock Portfolio (see below). Holds up to 15 reliable stocks -- or fewer as necessary to control Drawdown.


Daily Market Direction

"Z" Market Strength Indicator for 11/13/2019: 1.00
-1.00 :: Strongly SHORT Market
-0.75 :: Moderately SHORT Market
-0.50 :: Weakly SHORT Market
-0.25 :: Slightly Negative Market
 0.00 :: Weak/Neutral/Stable Market
+0.25 :: Slightly Positive Market
+0.50 :: Weakly LONG Market
+0.75 :: Moderately LONG Market
+1.00 :: Strongly LONG Market

The "Z" Indicator is produced by weighting the output signals from our 4 Daily Index ETF Signals for the S&P, NASDAQ 100, DOW 30, and the Russell 2000.
Its value ranges from -1.0, which is very Bearish, up to +1.0, which is very Bullish for the entire US Stock Market.
It is quantized in units of 0.25, thus producing the following range of discrete values: -1.0, -0.75, -0.50, -0.25, 0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 1.0.

Note: Our 3-stock Reference Portfolio is the smallest portfolio that we have that strikes a good balance between superior annualized gain performance and maximum drawdown.
Historical tracking data for this portfolio will be added soon.

Trading Actions for Portfolio NOVA03H for 11/13/2019:

Slot #Current HoldingActionNew HoldingDescription
1CTAS---CTASCintas Corp
2ORCL---ORCLOracle Corp
3VRTX---VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc


Predictive Stock and ETF Portfolios (Collective2)



Schulenberg Stock Strategist™ (SSS) "Maxwell-Boltzmann" Stock Market Timing Models

The basis for the Stock Strategist™ is an entirely new approach to viewing the stock market, that is, from a thermodynamic standpoint. In thermodynamics, the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution describes the relationship between the absolute temperature of a gas and the percentage of molecules that will have speeds within specified limits. This relationship works both ways: given a distribution of molecular speeds you can determine the temperature of a gas, and given the temperature of a gas you can determine the molecular speed distribution. We utilize an analogous concept in determining the effective temperature of the stock market. We call this value the MTI (Market Timing Indicator), although the acronym might also be considered to stand for "Market Temperature Indicator". Instead of gas molecules we consider an ensemble of over 8500 stocks and ETFs; instead of looking at the number of gas molecules within specified speed ranges we consider the distribution of "long" holdings within a spectrum of specially designed stock portfolios (with unusual buy and sell criteria). In a way, this is Technical Analysis ... but firmly rooted in the fundamental forces that underlie the stock market.

Last Changed: 11/12/19