T h e   S T O C K   S T R A T E G I S T   N E W S L E T T E R™

Type A Subscription (Full)

Market FORECAST for Monday, 10/10/16

The CURRENT (optional) Report Archive is at the link http://www.schulenberg.com/download/LATEST.ZIP

Key Strength Indicators (See Report 6 for a complete list):

MTI (Market Timing Indicator): 1.2656 (> neutral value of 1.0)

The Market Assessment (BNB=Bullish/Neutral/Bearish): slightly Bearish

Long-Term Projection    (mutual fund MFTI-A Signal): BUY

Long-Term Projection    (mutual fund MFTI-B Signal): BUY

One-Day Projection  (MSI=Market Strength Indicator): 0.99 to 0.99 (Weak to Moderate UP)

 

============ Forecast Reports (Jump to Key Information) ============
Report 6: Primary Indicators (the technical basis for our Forecast)
Report 7: Consolidated Signals (Preprocessor, Grail, Voted)
====================================================================

 

*** PREDICTION for the Next Trading Day:

Medium-/Long-Term Prognosis: Our long-term (mutual fund) signals remain in the BUY state. Since these indicators historically have given us 5-7 trading days of advance notice of major market transitions, our estimation is that the market is currently in little danger of a ‘correction’. Our long-running uptrend was pummeled in August 2013, and then again in September/October 2014, and yet again in January 2015 and August/September 2015, and now (surprisingly) in January and February 2016, but it remains fully in force. As always, the uptrend will probably be erratic … and there will be short-term dips along the way.

*** Important Note:

5th Generation Models (Type A subscription): The current Buy/Sell (Long/Short) states of our latest Risk-Averse Models are shown below in the “Essentials” Section.

3rd / 4th Generation Models: Our Voted Signals for 140 stocks and ETFs can be found in the new signals.csv spreadsheet that is sent attached to the Newsletter.

2nd Generation Models: Our Grail System Models for 1000 stocks and ETFs can be found in the new signals.csv spreadsheet that is sent attached to the Newsletter.

1st Generation Models: Our Preprocessor Models for 1672 stocks and ETFs can be found in the new signals.csv spreadsheet that is sent attached to the Newsletter.

What is the benefit of showing these ‘earlier’ Models? Answer: They cover a much wider swathe of equities than do our later (more accurate, but more narrowly focused) Model layers.

 

For Monday we say: Despite a lackluster showing on Friday, the Market remains in a ‘Long’ state, with a continuing uptrend, and is thus still ‘relatively safe’ for Long investments. Our signal spectrum is thus:

 

Daily/Short-Term: See “Essentials” (Primary Trading Strategies). (in the Section below).

Short-to-Mid-Term: The vast majority of the Voted Signals are in the BUY state.

Long-term: Mutual Fund MFTI-A and –B signals continue in their 5-year+ BUY states (since August 2011).

 

The Market Timing Indicator (MTI) is slightly higher, and at 1.2656 is clearly above the Neutral Value (1.0000). The momentum-based Market Assessment (BNB) Indicator, however, has slid back to ‘slightly Bearish’ based upon Friday’s performance. The Short Strength Indicator (SSI) is essentially unchanged at -3.90, and thus lies within the traditional range for an uptrend. Because of the unique nature of the Market in 2016, however, this appears to mean ‘safety without decent gains’. Earlier in 2016, of course, when the SSI value soared as the Market recovered from the China-and-oil-induced selloff of January, we saw high SSI values which turned out to signify ‘excellent gains with some risk’.

 

Our neural networks continue to look fairly positive, and thus the Forecast for Monday is once again for a ‘flat/mixed or slightly higher Close’. Even if some additional selling takes place, however, we should see considerable stability and resilience – and if Trump fails to do well in tonight’s debate, the Market will likely do even better on Monday.

 

 

For Friday we had said: We are retaining the Caution Flag for tomorrow, and thus for the hurricane-threatened weekend. With the uptrend still in place, and a mildly positive Market ‘temperature’, the situation remains ‘relatively safe’, but the continued shift in some key neural network values is a bad omen. Note, however, that not all of our ‘omens’ are actually followed by Market disasters, but it never hurts to take precautions. For example, if you currently have limited exposure to the Market, tomorrow is not the day to add to your positions.

 

Daily/Short-Term: See “Essentials” (Primary Trading Strategies). (in the Section below).

Short-to-Mid-Term: The majority of the Voted Signals are in the BUY state – despite the Caution Flag.

Long-term: Mutual Fund MFTI-A and –B signals continue in their 5-year+ BUY states (since August 2011).

 

The Market Timing Indicator (MTI) is slightly ‘warm’, and its 1.1498 value is indeed above the Neutral Value (1.0000). The momentum-based Market Assessment (BNB) Indicator, unsurprisingly, has declined to ‘Neutral’. Moreover, the Short Strength Indicator (SSI) has now descended to -4.02. This is massively different from the situation earlier in 2016 when we were seeing unusually large positive values – and which were in fact accompanied by Market gains. This set of conditions was unprecedented (never before seen in the 2002-2015 period). Now we are seeing the SSI taking up residence in its ‘normal’ uptrend zones (i.e., negative values), but this is ‘suggestive’ of a developing problem of some sort – and not a clear sign that the Market is happy and healthy. Hence – the Caution Flag.

 

The Prediction remains the usual ‘flat/mixed or slightly higher Close’, but there is a heightened risk ratio. On the long-term side, of course, we are well past the 5-year mark on our uptrend, and there is no end in sight.

 

 

How Did We Do?  Our Forecast for Friday was perhaps ‘fairly’ decent; the Market closed ‘a bit lower’ rather than ‘flat/mixed or slightly higher’, but then we again we were flying the Caution Flag and recommending that no new positions be undertaken. 

*** The ESSENTIALS (Our Primary Strategies):

Our basic rule is that all trades should be made with market orders for the market Open. No Stops are used unless specifically mentioned, and this will be a very rare occurrence.

System 1: Trade Voted (Class B) IWM Signal:    BUY

 

 

 

 

Weighted IWM Signal:

100.0% =

100% Long

(Trade IWM both Long and Short by following the IWM Class B Voted Signal). This simple system can also be made more conservative by halving the amount of money in play if the Market Timing Indicator (MTI) is less than 1.0000 (the Neutral value).

See Report 3 below for all 140 stock/ETF Voted Signals if you would prefer to work with other equities, or would like to form your own customized System using two or more individual equities.

Also see the Weighted IWM Signal in the next Section to determine if you wish to try reducing risk by reducing the invested amount at specific times. Note, however, that this will increase trading frequency and may thus not always be implementable (e.g., if available funds are still 'settling' in a Cash Account).

(Optional): Russell Spectrum Signal: This derived signal is calculated by looking at the weighted sum of 10 Russell 1000/2000/3000 signals: IWB, IWD, IWF, IWM, IWM', IWN, IWO, IWV, IWW, and IWZ. Signal values are 1.0 (BUY), 0.0 (Cash), and -1.0 (Short), and 'weightings' are determined by looking at a combination of Model back-tested Accuracy, back-tested Drawdown, and the number of transactions. IWM' is an alternative IWM signal that was developed to have slightly different characteristics from the standard IWM model, and this provides an additional 'vote'. The weighted signals are then multiplied by 100 so that a 100% Weighted IWM Signal value would indicate that our 'bet' is 100% Long for IWM, whereas a -100% Weighted IWM Signal would indicate that our 'bet' is 100% Short for IWM, and a value like 43.55% would correspond to committing 43.55% of trading funds on a IWM Long, or a value like -35.55% would correspond to committing 35.55% of trading funds on a IWM Short. This (optional) Weighted IWM Signal may be most useful to those subscribers who are working with standard (taxable) trading accounts and can handle a somewhat higher trading frequency. This new entity is still experimental, but it 'should' be an effective way to manage risks when trading a volatile equity like IWM.

System 2: Trade Long-Term MFTI-A Signal: BUY

(Recommended Strategy for 401K/403B Accounts). BUY=Buy/Hold equity mutual funds; SELL=Go to Money Market. The MFTI-A signal is our preferred signal for managing money within 401k and 403b accounts – or within the subaccounts of a variable annuity.

System 3: TBD

System 4: TBD

System 5: RAM-SAFE

System 6: RAM-BO

Other Trading Systems

(Type A Subscription only)

(Type A Subscription only)


$$BEGIN-A

Type A (Full) Subscription Models

For Monday (10/10/16):  Daily/Short-Term: RAM-SAFE = 100% SPY; RAM-BO = 100% SPY. (Caution Flag still flying)

 

Type A Subscription

System 5/6:

RAM-SAFE: 100% SPY

RAM-BO: 34% UPRO (or 100% Long SPY)

Type A Subscription (Systems 5 and 6)

(Strategy for IRAs). The purpose of this “Risk-Averse” System (RAM-SAFE) is to trade profitably and safely within an IRA (or other Cash Account) by supplying both cash management a­nd occasional hedging (neutralization). The primary signal to be traded is the long-term signal MFTI-B, and you will then use the S&P index as your trading equity. In order to provide optimal cash management, the 3x ETF versions of SPY (UPRO/SPXU) will be used. An alternate strategy for the S&P is to use the 2x ETFs (SSO/SDS) since these have much better trading volumes (liquidity) and consequently reduced ‘slippage’ when performing trades.

The RAM-SAFE model has 4 possible States:

(1) 33.34% UPRO (MFTI-B = BUY and no short-term weakness)

(2) 100% CASH (MFTI-B = BUY and short-term weakness has been detected)

(3) 33.34% SPXU (MFTI-B = SELL and no short-term strength)

(4) 100% CASH (MFTI-B = SELL and short-term strength has been detected)

If the 2x ETFs are used instead (with reduced slippage due to their higher liquidity), then the 4 possible States will be:

(1) 50.0% SSO (MFTI-B = BUY and no short-term weakness)

(2) 100% CASH (MFTI-B = BUY and short-term weakness has been detected)

(3) 50.0% SDS (MFTI-B = SELL and no short-term strength)

(4) 100% CASH (MFTI-B = SELL and short-term strength has been detected)

 

The RAM-BO model has 2 possible States:

(1) 33.34% UPRO (effectively 100% Long)

(2) 33.34% SPXU (effectively 100% Short)

Remember that the drawback of using the 2x ETFs is that you may occasionally not have funds available to make a new trade if the ‘settling periods’ for previous trades have not expired. This should only occur during volatile periods when the hedging signal is going on and off on a near-daily basis, resulting in frequent trades. On the other hand, being forced to stay in cash for an extra day or two at such times is not necessarily a bad thing.

Note that if you are using a margin-enabled (taxable) account, then you do not need to use the 3x ETFs (or 2x ETFs) and may use SPY instead, holding it either 100% Long or 100% Short. The use of 2x or 3x ETFs within a Cash Account is strictly a cash management device and is not needed when you do not have a ‘settling period’, nor are you denied the ability to go ‘Short’.

 


$$END-A

The Risk-Averse Model RAM-SAFE is our ‘safest’ investment signal and can potentially deliver the lowest possible drawdowns commensurate with very respectable gains – as is shown in the back-tested performance Table that follows. Note that if our objective is to make 36% per year, then it is only necessary to make 3% per month – or less than 1% per week. The trick is to ‘keep’ the gains and let them build. ‘Sometimes’ this is actually possible.

*** Model Note: The Risk-Averse Model has now been split into two ‘flavors’: RAM-SAFE and RAM-BO (for ‘bold’). The RAM-SAFE version is the same old Risk-Averse Model which has 3 possible states: 100% Long, 100% Short, or 100% Cash. These states are denoted in the system5.csv spreadsheet (which is not currently in the daily Archive file set) by L/L (100% Long), S/S (100% Short), and L/S or S/L (100% Cash).

It should be noted that RAM-BO (system6.csv) is not really very risk-averse; it has only two states of 100% Long or 100% Short – and never goes to Cash! It thus has much higher performance, but with higher drawdowns, than the RAM-SAFE version. Nonetheless, the underlying models are absolutely ‘identical’, with all hedging rules being the same. The program code is the same, and will stay the same. The difference, therefore, is when the RAM-SAFE model goes to Cash, RAM-BO totally reverses its position and ‘goes for it’ in the opposite direction. We have actually started experimentally trading RAM-BO in an IRA, using 34% allocations of either UPRO (to effectively go 100% Long), or SPXU (to effectively go 100% Short). By using these 3x ETFs, the money management issue should be satisfactorily addressed (allowing for the ‘settling’ time of closed trades in a ‘cash’, non-leverageable, account).  What we want to observe over the next few weeks is how well the UPRO and SPXU buys ‘fill’ at the Open. If there is too much slippage then we ‘may’ switch to using SPXL and SPXS, but these will probably not be as satisfactory, having lower trading volume.

The RAM-BO model is, needless to say, not for really conservative investors. For such individuals, the RAM-SAFE model is the safest model that we have.

RAM-SAFE (back-tested/hypothetical). Table updated 8/19/16

Year

Avg. Gain%

Max. Drawdown

Date (Max. Drawdown)

G/d

#hedges

2002

52.08%

-3.69%

082202

14.11

15

2003

119.58%

-3.09%

031203

38.73

37

2004

43.57%

-1.47%

091704

29.73

29

2005

26.94%

-2.22%

040705

12.14

27

2006

25.73%

-2.85%

060206

9.04

34

2007

39.19%

-3.11%

082807

12.60

28

2008

478.89%

-4.31%

081108

111.20

38

2009

77.49%

-5.97%

112309

12.99

42

2010

57.66%

-6.12%

071510

9.41

31

2011

74.86%

-2.46%

081511

30.49

33

2012

31.74%

-3.67%

060112

8.65

45

2013

45.18%

-2.47%

100813

18.26

35

2014

26.90%

-3.67%

041114

7.33

32

2015

43.33%

-3.64%

082515

11.89

54

2016

30.91%

-3.10%

062716

9.98

20

Avgs.

78.27%

-3.46%

22.65

33

 

 

RAM-BO (Aggressive) (back-tested/hypothetical). Table updated 8/19/16

Year

Avg. Gain%

Max. Drawdown

Date (Max. Drawdown)

G/d

#hedges

2002

88.03%

-7.39%

102302

11.91

29

2003

198.00%

-3.49%

040303

56.66

72

2004

78.01%

-2.94%

102004

26.51

55

2005

48.79%

-2.52%

100505

19.33

51

2006

32.85%

-4.64%

110306

7.09

66

2007

61.52%

-5.44%

083007

11.31

55

2008

1664.85%

-8.44%

102708

197.21

77

2009

130.88%

-11.75%

052009

11.14

82

2010

95.08%

-7.11%

071510

13.36

60

2011

145.84%

-9.54%

100311

15.29

64

2012

51.67%

-6.02%

122112

8.58

90

2013

61.76%

-2.81%

052213

21.97

71

2014

44.07%

-5.52%

040914

7.99

64

2015

103.49%

-4.41%

062615

23.45

108

2016

58.20%

-5.40%

062316

10.78

41

Avgs.

190.87%

-5.83%

32.75

65

 


 Our Most Popular Signals:

************* Table 1. Major ETF Signals ****************

***************************************************************
               Auto-Trading Signals

Key: BUY   (go Long)
     $$$$  (go to Cash)
     SHORT (go Short)
***************************************************************
VTI      BUY    (Whole US Stock Market)
QQQQ     BUY    (NASDAQ 100)
DIA      BUY    (DOW 30)

MDY      BUY    (S&P Mid-cap 400 Trust)
IJH      BUY    (S&P Mid-cap 400 Index)

SMH      BUY    (Semiconductors)

SPY      BUY    (S&P 500)
XLB      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Materials ETF)
XLE      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Energy ETF)
XLF      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Financial ETF)
XLI      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Industrial ETF)
XLK      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Technology ETF)
XLP      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Consumer Staples ETF)
XLU      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Utilities ETF)
XLV      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Health Care ETF)
XLY      BUY    (SPDRs Select Sector Consumer Disretionary ETF)

IWB      BUY    (Russell 1000 Index)
IWD      BUY    (Russell 1000 Value)
IWF      BUY    (Russell 1000 Growth)

IWM      BUY    (Russell 2000 Index)  <<< PRIMARY SIGNAL
IWN      BUY    (Russell 2000 Value)
IWO      BUY    (Russell 2000 Growth)

IWV      BUY    (Russell 3000 Index)

MFTI-A   BUY    (Long-Term Trading Signal A: Mutual Funds)
MFTI-B   BUY    (Long-Term Trading Signal B: Mutual Funds/ETFs)
MFTI-C   BUY    (Long-Term Trading Signal C: Mutual Funds/ETFs)
MFTI-D   BUY    (Long-Term Trading Signal D: Mutual Funds/ETFs)
***************************************************************

 

*** Note 1: The MTI can range from about -2.5 to +2.5, with a 'neutral' value of 1.0. A value of 1.0 will generally be associated with a market that is either stable (holding its valuations) or rising slowly and erratically. Values greater than 1.0 signify a 'long' market, while values substantially below 1.0 (and especially zero or negative) signify shorting situations. Although the MTI is extremely useful (especially in the construction of equity-specific models), bear in mind that it has a reaction time of several days. It is thus not sufficient to use this indicator alone for trading specific equities on a day-by-day basis.



Table 2: Performance Statistics for the Long-Term Signals.
Back-tested from 8/16/02 using IWM (traded Long/Short) as a surrogate for a typical equity mutual fund.

 

Long-Term Signal

Annualized Gain (Long-Only)

Max. Drawdown (Long-Only)

#buys + #sells (8/16/02 to present)

Annualized Gain (Short-Only)

Max. Drawdown (Short-Only)

MFTI-C (for mutual funds)

35.14%

-11.37%

112

18.74%

-17.53%

MFTI-A (for mutual funds)

28.49%

-17.49%

36

14.16%

-14.36%

MFTI-B

33.11%

-17.49%

68

18.49%

-17.04%

MFTI-D

50.18%

-8.79%

192

32.50%

-16.60%

 *** Modeling Note: (5/3/16): A long time ago, probably before 2007 when we performed a major retuning of our MFTI-A and -B signals, it was always true that the MTI and the SSI were the dominant players in determining when the long-term signals went to a SELL. We never really re-examined this dependency following the 2007 overhaul, but a recent look at the actual signal parameters revealed a surprising fact: it is really the CNNI (the average of all 10 ‘n’-day neural networks) that is the major trigger for a SELL. The MFTI-B SELL ‘algorithm’ is:

(1)    MTI <= 1.2786  (actually somewhat warmer than Neutral)

(2)    SSI >= -0.0876 (much lower than our very high SSIs (HSO Zone) of 2016.)

(3)    MSI <= -0.0829 (meaning that about half of the “B” Voted Signals are BUYs, and the other half are in a Short state.)

(4)    IWM must have had a lower close for the current day.

(5)    CNNI <= 0.6127 !!!

Now, situations (1)-(4) happen quite a lot, and they even happen quite often ‘simultaneously’, which is what this signal model requires, but condition (5) is less frequent. When all 5 conditions occurred simultaneously, this gave us precisely 24 MFTI-B SELL signals since 8/16/02 (almost 14 years), and only 14 since 2005.

The CNNI can go negative for considerable periods of time, but of course #1-#4 must occur simultaneously to trigger a SELL. What is interesting is to look at the ‘average’ number of Market days prior to a SELL, at which time the CNNI was, say, 3.00 or greater. The average period seems to be about 4-5 weeks, with a few points down in the 8-12 Market day range. This suggests that, when the CNNI is greater than 3.00 or so, that there is ‘lots’ of time before a SELL occurs, and moreover, that when the CNNI drops below 0.6127 the chances for a SELL are vastly greater.

 


  


============ Forecast Reports ============
Report 6: Primary Indicators
Report 7: Consolidated Signals
==========================================

===============================================================================
FORECAST Report 6: Primary Indicators and Signals (as of the Close on 10/07/16)
===============================================================================

The following Table shows all of our PRIMARY indicators, drawn from all
components of our System.

++/--/?? symbols are used to indicate whether the indicator (or CHANGE in the
indicator) is favorable for Longs (++), unfavorable for Longs (--), or
ambiguous (??). We utilize this Table to help us gauge the overall condition
of the market, and as a checklist to ensure that we don't overlook any
pertinent factor.

   Indicator      10/07/16             10/06/16
-----------------------------------------------------
++ 
MutFnd MFTI:   buy             <--  buy
++ MutFnd Score:  6.80            <--  6.83

++ GrailSys Buy%: 88.49%          <--  86.79%
++ 80+%Club Buy%: 100.00%         <--  100.00%

++ MTI (MktTim):  1.2656          <--  1.1498
++ MktColorCode:  BLUE            <--  YELLOW
?? LSI/SSI:       5.33/-3.90      <--  5.47/-4.02
++ TSI ("techs"): 20.1            <--  19.8

-- Preproc. TOT:  268             <--  273
?? Preproc. #L:   3               <--  3
++ Preproc. #S:   0               <--  0
++ #LongRawSigs:  5               <--  4

++ NN1 (1-day):   6.95%           <--  6.95%
++ NN3 (3-day):   9.81%           <--  9.64%
++ NN8 (8-day):   12.57%          <--  12.41%
++ CNNI (avg.):   10.78%          <--  10.52%
-- QQQQ 5-day:    -----           <--  +++++

++ Prudent A.V.:  ( 20,  0, 80)%  <--  (  0,  0,100)%
++ AllocVec #0:   ( 48,  0, 52)%  <--  ( 44,  0, 56)%
++ AllocVec #1:   ( 55, 35, 10)%  <--  ( 50, 50,  0)%
++ AllocVec #2:   ( 58, 42,  0)%  <--  ( 52, 48,  0)%
++ Recommended:   20-48% LONG     <--  0-44% LONG

-- Preproc. L/1:  0               <--  0
++ MRI Indicator: 0.05            <--  0.09

++ PredTablSigs:  ****/*          <--  ****/?
++ PredTablQQQQ:  UP              <--  ??
++ PredTablSMH:   UP              <--  UP
++ PredTablSPY:   UP              <--  UP
++ PredTablDIA:   UP              <--  UP

++ VotedClA VTI:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA QQQQ: BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA DIA:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA MDY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA SPY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLF:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLE:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLK:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLI:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLP:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLU:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLB:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA XLV:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClA IJH:  BUY             <--  BUY

++ VotedClB VTI:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB QQQQ: BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB DIA:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB MDY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB SPY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLF:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLE:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLK:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLI:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLP:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLU:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLB:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB XLV:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClB IJH:  BUY             <--  BUY

++ VotedClC VTI:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC QQQQ: BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC DIA:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC MDY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC SPY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC XLF:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC XLE:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC XLK:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC XLY:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC XLI:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC XLP:  BUY             <--  BUY
++ VotedClC XLU:  BUY             <--  BUY
?? VotedClC XLB:  $$$$            <--  $$$$
?? VotedClC XLV:  $$$$            <--  $$$$
?? VotedClC IJH:  $$$$            <--  $$$$

?? $NQ-RU:        +/-             <--  +/-
?? $NQ-SP:        +/-             <--  +/-
?? $NQ-DW:        +/-             <--  +/-

Definitions:
============
MutFnd MFTI    Mutual Fund Timing Indicator (BUY/SELL/HOLD)
MutFnd Score   (0=Hard Sell, 5=Hold, 10=Strong Buy)

GrailSys Buy%  Percentage of 1000 Grail System equities in the BUY state
80+%Club Buy%  Percentage of BUYS among Grail models with accuracies >= 80%

MTI (MktTim)   Market Timing Indicator (calculated by Preprocessor)
MktColorCode   Market Color Code (GREEN,BLUE,YELLOW,ORANGE,RED)
LSI/SSI        Long Strength Indicator/Short Strength Indicator
TSI ("techs")  Technical Strength Indicator ('tech' stocks)

Preproc. TOT   Preprocessor Value: Total # of equities held LONG
Preproc. #L    Preprocessor Value: # of new LONGs for tomorrow
Preproc. #S    Preprocessor Value: # of new SHORTs for tomorrow
#LongRawSigs   Preprocessor Value: # of 'Raw' (unvoted) Long Signals (0-10)

NN1 (1-day)    Neural Network: 1-day projection for QQQQ
NN3 (3-day)    Neural Network: 3-day projection for QQQQ
NN8 (8-day)    Neural Network: 8-day projection for QQQQ
CNNI (avg.)    Neural Network: Combined (avg.) n-day projection for QQQQ
QQQQ 5-day     QQQQ 5-day 'Weather Forecast'

Prudent A.V.   Prudent Asset Allocation Vector:    (%Long, 0,    %Cash)
AllocVec #0    Long/Cash Asset Allocation Vector:  (%Long, 0,    %Cash)
AllocVec #1    "Official" Asset Allocation Vector: (%Long,%Short,%Cash)
AllocVec #2    Aggressive Asset Allocation Vector: (%Long,%Short,    0)
Recommended    Recommended LONG% Allocation Range (Prudent to Aggressive)

Preproc. L/1   Preprocessor L/1 Portfolio: 0 if NO holding; 1 if FULL
MRI Indicator  MRI Indicator (negative values can portend major movements)

PredTablSigs   Prediction Table (PREDTABL) Class 1/2 QQQQ Signals
PredTablQQQQ   Prediction Table (PREDTABL) 'Probable' Direction of QQQQ (UP/DN)
PredTablSMH    Prediction Table (PREDTABL) 'Probable' Direction of SMH  (UP/DN)
PredTablSPY    Prediction Table (PREDTABL) 'Probable' Direction of SPY  (UP/DN)
PredTablDIA    Prediction Table (PREDTABL) 'Probable' Direction of DIA  (UP/DN)

VARPORT Buy%   VARPORTA-G (Intermediate-Term) portfolios: Max Long%
"H" Buy%       PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "H" portfolios
"N" Buy%       PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "N" portfolios
"C" Buy%       PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "C" portfolios
"E" Buy%       PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "E" portfolios
"U" Buy%       PORTSTAT (Grail System) portfolios: Avg Long% of "U" portfolios

VotedSigQQQQ   Voted QQQQ Signal (from voteqqqq.htm report)
$NQ-RU         Differential Signal (from diffhist.htm): QQQQ vs. IWM
$NQ-SP         Differential Signal (from diffhist.htm): QQQQ vs. SPY
$NQ-DW         Differential Signal (from diffhist.htm): QQQQ vs. DIA
$NQ-AU         Differential Signal (from diffhist.htm): QQQQ vs. GLD (Gold)



===============
END OF REPORT 6
===============


============ Forecast Reports ============
Report 6: Primary Indicators
Report 7: Consolidated Signals
==========================================

===============================================================================
FORECAST Report 7: Consolidated Signals (Preprocessor, Grail, and Voted)
===============================================================================

The following Table shows all of our Equity signals.

The columns are:

R1000         Y --> Russell 1000 stock
SP500         Y --> S&P 500 stock
N100          Y --> Nasdaq 100 stock
Consensus     Y --> 2 or 3 signals sytems agree on a signal
Stock         Stock/ETF Name
PREPROC       BUY --> the equity is Long in the Preprocessor (1672 different equities)
BUY DATE      The date on which the Preprocessor 'bought' the equity
#DAYS LONG    The number of Market days that the equity has been held Long
GAIN%         The total percentage gain in the equity since it was 'bought'
GRAIL         The Grail System signal for the same equity (1000 different equities)
VOTED         The Voted Signal for the same equity (140 different equities)

See attached file: signals.csv

===============
END OF REPORT 7
===============


============ Forecast Reports ============
Report 6: Primary Indicators
Report 7: Consolidated Signals
==========================================

Section A: Introduction and Overview

A.1 Newsletter Subscriptions


Full (Type A) Subscriptions to the Schulenberg Strategist Newsletter™ are for 3-month ($200) or 6-month ($360) intervals, and may be purchased by
anyone who was on our mailing list prior to January 2015.

Partial (Type B) Subscriptions to the Schulenberg Strategist Newsletter™ are for a 1-year period. The rate is $100 and such subscriptions are available to anyone.

All subscriptions currently must be paid via check.

Our mailing address is:

Schulenberg & Associates

P.O. Box 14507

Huntsville, Alabama 35815

  

A.2 Disclaimer

Like all other sources of stock market advice and timing signals, even with our Strategist System™ there can never be a guarantee that past performance will be indicative of future results. Trying to predict market trends, and the movement of individual stocks and ETFs, is always a matter of probabilities – and this is made more difficult by the fact that the market is always evolving … almost as though it is intent on changing its basic nature just enough to ensure that the latest technical methods gradually cease to be productive.

We believe that our ‘thermally-based’ market timing method (based on an analogy with the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution law of thermal physics) is able to ‘measure’ the most fundamental of market forces, and is thus relatively immune to shifts in market behavior over time. After almost 14 years of development and back-testing, the evidence continues to suggest that this method really does provide a high predictive accuracy. However, there is no way to be certain that it will always be able to anticipate the direction of the market with such high precision.

A.3 Report Structure

Report Summary

 

SIGNALS.CSV:  Consolidated Signals (Preprocessor, Grail, and Voted)

    

TRKQQ-DW.TXT: Tracking report for the hedged strategy using QQQQ and DIA

TRKQQDW1.TXT: Tracking report for 1x ETF variation of hedging strategy (PSQ and DOG)

TRKQQDW2.TXT: Tracking report for 2x ETF variation of hedging strategy (QID/QLD/DXD/DDM)

TRKYW-DW.TXT: Tracking report for the hedged strategy using IYW and DIA

TRKQQ-AU.TXT: The Hedging Report for QQQQ vs. GLD ETF trades

TRKQQ-FN.TXT: The Hedging Report for QQQQ vs. XLF ETF trades

TRKQQ-SP.TXT: The Hedging Report for QQQQ vs. SPY ETF trades

TRKQQ-LE.TXT: The Hedging Report for QQQQ vs. XLE ETF trades

TRKQQ-LP.TXT: The Hedging Report for QQQQ vs. XLP ETF trades

TRKQQ-LU.TXT: The Hedging Report for QQQQ vs. XLU ETF trades

TRKQQ-RU.TXT: The Hedging Report for QQQQ vs. IWM ETF trades

TRKSP-DW.TXT: The Hedging Report for SPY vs. DIA ETF trades

TRKSM-DW.TXT: The Hedging Report for SMH vs. DIA ETF trades

TRKSM-BB.TXT: The Hedging Report for SMH vs. IBB ETF trades

TRKSM-YJ.TXT: The Hedging Report for SMH vs. IYJ ETF trades

TRKSM-SW.TXT: The Hedging Report for SMH vs. SWH ETF trades

  

TRKVOTEB.TXT: Tracking report for 20 principal ETF signals (see also TRKVOTEA and C)

 

TRKQSTKA.TXT: Tracking report for the top 20 stocks that make up QQQQ

TKQ1STKA.TXT: Tracking report for #21-40 of QQQQ-based stocks

TKQ2STKA.TXT: Tracking report for #41-60 of QQQQ-based stocks

TKQ3STKA.TXT: Tracking report for #61-80 of QQQQ-based stocks

 

TKM1STKA.TXT: Tracking report for FAS and UYG, 7 QQQQ component stocks, and 11 DIA component stocks.

 

TRKDSTKA.TXT: Tracking report for the top 20 stocks that make up DIA.

 

predtabl.htm: The Prediction Table (MOS/MCS Analysis; predicting the Close based upon the Open)

selector.htm: The Day Trading signals list (lists all preprocessor signals plus Grail/Voted Signals).

 

ALLVOTES.TXT: Summary Report that summarizes all 140 Voted Signals.

 

STKPAIRS.TXT: The relative performance of 7140 2-equity portfolios.

TRKPAIRS.TXT: The actual performance of 20 2-ETF portfolios since 9/4/08.

 

MUTFUNDS.TXT: The current signals (and past performance) for 1000 mutual funds.

 

A.4 Downloads and Key Links

CURRENT (latest) Report Archive is at the link http://www.schulenberg.com/download/LATEST.ZIP

or, look at ALL the available downloads at http://www.schulenberg.com/download/

 

Archives starting with 'SS' (or the file LATEST.ZIP) require the subscription "password" and are available only to subscribers with a Type A (Full) Subscription.

 

 ============ Forecast Reports (Jump to Key Information) ============
Report 6: Primary Indicators (the technical basis for our Forecast)
Report 7: Consolidated Signals (Preprocessor, Grail, Voted)
====================================================================

End of Report